Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural commodities closed mixed over the trading week which ended May 18, with soybean futures falling 0.47 percent amid trade tensions between China and the United States.
The most active corn contract for July delivery rose 6 cents weekly, or 1.51 percent, to 4.025 dollars per bushel. July wheat delivery added 11.75 cents, or 2.32 percent, to 5.1825 dollars per bushel. July soybeans went down 4.75 cents, or 0.47 percent, to 9.985 dollars per bushel over the week.
Corn futures this week ended higher amid competing fundamental input. There’s little doubt that the U.S. Department of Agriculture(USDA) & Brazil’s CONAB are too high by 3-5 million tonnes on Brazil’s 2018 harvest.
The U.S. exports continue to exceed the pace needed to meet the USDA’s target. Analysts’ climate work suggests there’s an elevated risk of Black Sea dryness this summer. China looks to boost sorghum demand moving forward.
But the lack of agreement on NAFTA will keep trade concern intact, particularly amid rising prices and fund length.
Wheat futures ended the week higher as more attention is being paid to ongoing and severe dryness in Australia with as cumulative rainfall in Ukraine and Russia is down sharply on recent years. Wheat needs a weather problem to score new highs.
It’s premature to adjust balance sheets and the world trade matrix until more known about June weather. Major price moves now hinge almost solely on non U.S. weather in June, and there is a growing body of evidence that suggests dryness there may be lasting.
However, traders should be mindful that so far there’s been no material boost in U.S. demand. Amid improving Plains weather, U.S. end stocks could exceed 1.0 billion bushels without ongoing weather issues in Ukraine and Russia.
Soybeans fell on liquidation and extended losses into the weekend on Chinese cancellations of imports of U.S. soybeans. The Argentine drought has been fully priced and the market is struggling to deal with record large U.S. soybeans stocks.
Large fund length in soybeans and meal weighed heavy on late week trade.
It was a good week for planting progress, but the gains were again limited in the Northern Midwest and Plains states while producers in the Central Midwest were able to work around the rains.